Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jul 2, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders betting real money on outcomes, whereas traditional weather forecasts come from meteorological models and expert analysis. This market often incorporates the latest atmospheric data and seasonal patterns that professional forecasters publish, but the two can diverge when traders weigh additional factors or assign different probabilities to edge cases. Comparing this market's implied odds to published forecasts from the National Weather Service or similar agencies can reveal where traders see value or risk that analysts may have underweighted.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects supply and demand; as more traders believe a particular temperature band is likely, its price rises. You can place limit or market orders to enter or exit positions, and the spread between bid and ask prices tightens as liquidity increases, making it cheaper to trade larger volumes.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on July 2, 2026 is confirmed and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official weather station data, typically reported by the National Weather Service or equivalent meteorological authority. Traders' positions settle based on which temperature range or outcome bracket the actual low falls into, as specified by the market's outcome categories.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can all shift odds in this market. Significant atmospheric events—such as unusual jet stream positioning, tropical systems, or heat domes—may emerge weeks or days before July 2, 2026, causing traders to reprrice their expectations. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and broader climate trends can influence how traders assess the likelihood of extreme lows or unusually warm conditions, driving price movement as new data arrives.