Lowest temperature in London on May 31?

On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in London on May 31 is priced through outcome tokens representing discrete temperature ranges or thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell these tokens, with prices reflecting the probability each outcome occurs. Higher token prices indicate stronger market belief in that outcome. Liquidity and order-book depth determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions. As May 31 approaches, prices typically converge toward the actual observed temperature, with volatility potentially spiking around significant weather pattern shifts or updated forecasts.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the lowest temperature in London on May 31, 2026 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by the official temperature reading from the designated weather station or meteorological authority serving London. Resolution occurs once the day has passed and final data is confirmed. Traders should monitor the market's specification for the exact data source and any tie-breaking rules to understand how edge cases are handled.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and climate anomalies will drive price movement. A sudden warming trend or cold front prediction could swing odds significantly. Updates from meteorological agencies about jet-stream positioning or Atlantic pressure systems influence trader expectations. Broader climate events—such as volcanic activity or solar cycles—may alter long-term temperature patterns. As May 31 approaches, short-term weather models become more reliable, typically reducing uncertainty and stabilizing prices. Real-time temperature data in late May will trigger final repricing as the actual outcome becomes increasingly certain.