Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical data, this market aggregates distributed knowledge from participants with financial incentives to predict accurately. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts from Hong Kong's Observatory or international weather services can reveal where traders see asymmetric risk. Markets sometimes price in tail risks or local factors that models underweight, making side-by-side comparison valuable for understanding different perspectives on the June 26 low.

This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once June 26 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual recorded data against the temperature thresholds embedded in each trading option. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the close of the trading day, allowing rapid settlement once official temperature readings are confirmed.

Updated weather forecasts from meteorological agencies can shift odds significantly as new model runs refine predictions for June 26. Seasonal climate patterns, tropical storm activity, or unusual atmospheric conditions in the weeks leading up to the date may trigger repricing. Real-time satellite and radar data closer to the event date typically narrows uncertainty and can cause sharp moves. Historical temperature records for Hong Kong in late June also serve as anchors; traders may adjust positions if comparable years show unexpected deviations, or if long-range forecasts signal anomalous heat or cooling patterns.