TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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ISM Services PMI - October 2026
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

What will ISM Services PMI be?

Oct 6, 2026, 1:07 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$31,601
Volume 24h:
$455
89%
Liquidity:
$5,468
55%
Open interest:
$3,627N/A

53.0 to 53.9

 - Polymarket

53.0 to 53.9 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:17h:36m

Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?

27%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 27% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

53.0 to 53.9

Trade
27%
10%
Yes 33¢No 79¢
12¢
$529
$7,911
0.45%
44%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

54.0 to 54.9

Trade
24%
4%
Yes 29¢No 81.3¢
10.3¢
$484
$5,444
0.74%
12%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

55.0 to 55.9

Trade
23%
10%
Yes 24¢No 77.2¢
1.2¢
$997
$3,358
0.99%
48%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

56.0 to 56.9

Trade
15%
23%
Yes 15.7¢No 85.8¢
1.5¢
$740
$3,512
8%
394%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

57.0 to 57.9

Trade
5%
Yes 8¢No 97.9¢
5.9¢
$531
$3,777
0.65%
10%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

52.0 to 52.9

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.8¢No 99.1¢
3.9¢
$533
$4,104
1%
58%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

59.0+

Trade
3%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.8¢
4.9¢
$425
$1,504
0%
3%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

<51.0

Trade
2%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.9¢
4.3¢
$390
$611
0%
41%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

58.0 to 58.9

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.6¢No 99.8¢
3.4¢
$422
$750
0%
15%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
polymarket

51.0 to 51.9

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.8¢
1.3¢
$415
$631
0%
3%
N/A
1d 17h 36m
Active
Total markets: 10

Description

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ISM Services PMI market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, represented as probabilities. You can also view the price history of the market, allowing you to see how expectations have shifted over time. Additionally, the dashboard displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $544, and the total volume traded to date, which is $31,601. This provides a snapshot of market activity and interest in predicting the October 2026 ISM Services PMI reading.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of the ISM Services PMI falling within a specific range, as indicated by the odds on Polymarket. Comparing this to recent analyst forecasts, it's important to note that predictions vary. While some analysts anticipate continued growth in the services sector, others express concerns about potential economic headwinds. This market provides a real-time aggregation of diverse perspectives, offering a potentially more accurate forecast than any single analyst's prediction. The collective wisdom of traders often reflects a nuanced understanding of the economic landscape.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future ISM Services PMI value. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, 'Will ISM Services PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?', has a chance percentage of 27.0% on Polymarket, demonstrating strong market conviction.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official ISM Services PMI data for October 2026 is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported value of the ISM Services PMI, as published by the Institute for Supply Management. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual reported value. The market will close prior to the official release to prevent manipulation.

Several economic indicators and events could significantly influence this market. Changes in employment figures, consumer confidence data, and manufacturing activity reports will all be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in inflation rates or interest rate policies by the Federal Reserve could also trigger price movements. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions could also play a role. Any news that suggests a strengthening or weakening of the services sector is likely to impact trading activity and the overall odds in this market, leading to price adjustments as traders react to new information.