TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of the cryptocurrency HYPE at a specific moment, using a precise measurement method to determine the outcome. The price will be evaluated based on a standardized benchmark, ensuring consistency and transparency for all participants.
The event determines the outcome based on the simple average price of HYPE measured by CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI index during the sixty seconds immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, with one market covering prices at or below $65.99, another covering prices above $113.9999, and the remaining markets each covering a distinct $1 increment between these bounds. The official price is calculated by averaging sixty RTI price readings collected in the final minute before expiration. Participants should note that while common sources like Google or Coinbase may offer reference points, the resolving price strictly follows CF Benchmarks' RTI methodology, ensuring objective and uniform evaluation across all markets.
Comparing prediction market odds to spot price expectations involves looking at what analysts and polls suggest the HYPE price might be on October 9, 2026, versus what traders are pricing in on Kalshi. If the market price suggests a high probability of a certain price range, it indicates traders collectively believe that outcome is more likely than what conventional forecasts predict. Conversely, if the market price implies a lower probability for a widely anticipated price, it suggests traders are skeptical of those expectations. This market provides a unique, real-money view of future price expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for HYPE. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of HYPE falling within that range on October 9, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and changing expectations about HYPE’s future value. The current volume is $287.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the HYPE price at 5pm EDT on October 9, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source for cryptocurrency pricing data. The specific price range that the HYPE price falls into at the specified time will determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the data is verified.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major news regarding the HYPE project, such as partnerships, technological advancements, or regulatory changes, could all impact trader sentiment. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, including overall bull or bear cycles, and the performance of similar projects, will also play a role. Unexpected events, such as security breaches or significant shifts in user adoption, could also cause substantial price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.