TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of the cryptocurrency HYPE at a specific moment, using a standardized benchmark to determine the outcome. The price will be measured precisely at 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026, using a verified data source to ensure accuracy and fairness.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the official price is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected in the final minute before expiration. The specified range for each market must be strictly adhered to, with distinct boundaries separating each outcome. For instance, a price exactly at $57.00 falls into the $56.9999 or below range, while a price of $57.00001 would fall into the $57 to $57.9999 range. All outcomes are mutually exclusive, ensuring only one market resolves as 'Yes'. The use of CF Benchmarks' RTI as the definitive source guarantees consistency and eliminates discrepancies from other price feeds.
Comparing prediction market odds to spot price expectations involves assessing whether the implied probability of different price ranges aligns with external forecasts. For example, if analysts predict a high probability of HYPE trading within a certain range, this market will reflect that expectation if traders agree. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, information access, or simply market sentiment. It’s important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of participants, which may diverge from individual expert opinions or traditional financial models.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for HYPE. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants about the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price is determined solely by the actions of traders on Kalshi, and doesn’t directly incorporate information from other sources or venues. The current price reflects the probability weighted average of the potential outcomes as perceived by the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of HYPE at 5pm EDT on October 23, 2026, as reported by a recognized financial data provider, will determine the winning contract. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the verified price and the resulting payout for each contract shortly after the resolution date.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news announcements related to HYPE, such as partnerships, technological advancements, or regulatory changes, would likely impact trading activity. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, including shifts in investor sentiment or macroeconomic conditions, could also play a role. Unexpected events, such as security breaches or significant network upgrades, could introduce volatility. Furthermore, increased media coverage or social media attention surrounding HYPE could influence the market’s price as more traders become aware of it.