TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether the HYPE cryptocurrency's price exceeds various thresholds at a specific moment. The outcome depends on the average price during the final minute before the deadline, providing a clear, time-bound measure of market performance.
The event determines if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026, exceeds one of forty-four specified thresholds, ranging from $64.9999 to $113.9999. Each threshold corresponds to a separate market outcome labeled according to the threshold value (e.g., $65 or above, $66 or above, etc.). The official price is calculated by collecting sixty Real Time Index (RTI) prices during the last minute before expiration and averaging them. This method ensures consistency and objectivity in resolving all markets, as the same calculated average applies to each threshold check. If the average meets or exceeds a given threshold, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' The secondary rules clarify that while external sources like Google or Coinbase may offer reference points, the final resolution relies exclusively on CF Benchmarks' RTI data.
Prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect current valuations, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders about the future price of HYPE. This can reveal insights into potential market movements and unforeseen events that aren't necessarily captured in current pricing. If a significant difference emerges between the prediction market price and expert forecasts, it suggests the crowd anticipates factors not yet fully reflected in conventional analysis. Monitoring this difference can be a valuable signal for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the HYPE price on October 9, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will likely converge towards the actual HYPE price, as uncertainty decreases and traders refine their predictions. The current price reflects the probability-weighted average of all possible outcomes, as perceived by the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of HYPE at 5pm EDT on October 9, 2026, as reported by a reputable source, will determine the settlement of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the price range will receive a payout proportional to their contract value, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome based on publicly available data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news regarding the HYPE project, such as partnerships, technological breakthroughs, or regulatory changes, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader trends in the cryptocurrency market, including shifts in investor sentiment or macroeconomic factors, could also impact the price. Unexpected security breaches or vulnerabilities within the HYPE ecosystem could lead to a decline in confidence and a corresponding price drop. Finally, significant shifts in the overall adoption rate of HYPE could influence trader expectations and drive market movements.