TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific cryptocurrency, HYPE, on a particular date and time. The outcome depends on whether the price of HYPE meets or exceeds various predefined thresholds at the specified moment, reflecting potential investor interest in significant price movements.
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the HYPE cryptocurrency price at a specific moment on October 23, 2026, at 5 PM EDT. Each threshold represents a distinct price level, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the simple average of the sixty-second Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks in the minute before 5 PM EDT exceeds the respective threshold. The official price is determined by averaging 60 RTI price readings collected in the final minute before expiration. All markets share this methodology, with each market having a unique threshold ranging from $55.9999 to $104.9999. The use of CF Benchmarks' RTI ensures consistency, as general price sources like Google or Coinbase may vary.
Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective on future events, potentially offering a different view than traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices represent the current value, this market aggregates predictions about a future price, incorporating various factors and anticipating potential shifts in value. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about market conditions, unforeseen events, or simply the collective intelligence of traders participating in this market. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the HYPE price on the specified date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome, and the market price converges towards a consensus view as more information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities and potential price movements for HYPE.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the price of HYPE as recorded by a publicly available and trusted source at 5:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. The final price from this source will determine the payout for all contracts traded in this market. Traders should monitor relevant sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential factors influencing the final price.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or technological breakthroughs, could influence the price of HYPE. News regarding the project's development, partnerships, or adoption rate would also be key catalysts. Unexpected macroeconomic events or shifts in investor sentiment could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, any security breaches or vulnerabilities associated with HYPE could negatively affect its price and, consequently, this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for anyone trading in this market.