How strong will Koguma be?

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more. JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Koguma will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Koguma. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Koguma by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Koguma will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Koguma (JMA typhoon number 2629) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past positions for T2629 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202629.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead.