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416,910

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How strong will In-fa be?
polymarket

How strong will In-fa be?

Oct 26, 2026, 2:10 PM EST - Nov 10, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$7,731
Volume 24h:
$1,991N/A
Liquidity:
$452
62%
Open interest:
$1,284N/A

Violent

 - Polymarket

Violent - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 10, 2026

Time left: 08d:00h:07m

Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 1¢ buys you 10,000 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $10,000 | Net Profit: $9,900 Multiplier: 100.00x | ROI: 9,900% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 8 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Violent

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.7¢
0.7¢
$452
$5,234
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 1d
Active
polymarket

Super Typhoon

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,497
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Every market in this event may resolve to "No". "Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en. "Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html. For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

Polymarket

This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Every market in this event may resolve to "No". "Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en. "Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html. For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the In-fa strength market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. The price represents the probability that the event will occur, as determined by traders on the platform. You can see how the market is evolving with real-time updates to these metrics. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $5 and the total volume is $7,731. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential strength of Typhoon In-fa.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for the In-fa strength reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts provide assessments based on models and data, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. If analysts predict a certain intensity level for the typhoon, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree, and to what degree. Discrepancies can highlight areas of uncertainty or differing interpretations of available data regarding the storm’s potential impact.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous process where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the typhoon's potential strength. This creates a real-time gauge of collective expectations, distinct from static forecasts or polls. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants.

This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the maximum sustained wind speed of Typhoon In-fa as reported by a recognized meteorological agency. The specific agency and criteria will be clearly defined on the Polymarket market page. Traders will then be able to see which outcome was verified, and payouts will be distributed accordingly. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Changes in official forecasts from meteorological agencies, such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or the Japan Meteorological Agency, will likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected shifts in the typhoon's track or intensity, communicated through these agencies, would be particularly impactful. Additionally, reports of early impacts or preparations in affected areas could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market. Any new data regarding atmospheric conditions could also play a role.