TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How strong will Choi-wan be?
predict
polymarket

How strong will Choi-wan be?

Volume:
$45,315

Very strong

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 11, 2026

Closed: Oct 11, 4:28 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Very strong

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Very strong

View
97%
Yes 99¢No 5.4¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Strong

View
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢
—
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Strong

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Violent

View
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
—
$11
$1,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Violent

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,698
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Severe tropical storm or weaker

View
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Severe tropical storm or weaker

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event group centers on forecasting the peak intensity of Typhoon Choi-wan (JMA typhoon number 2627) as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Markets ask whether the storm will reach specific intensity thresholds – severe tropical storm, strong typhoon, very strong typhoon, or violent typhoon.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize identical resolution criteria based on JMA's intensity classifications and a consistent cutoff date for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) analyses at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en

Core resolution logic:

  • Peak intensity is determined by the highest intensity class assigned by JMA in its published analyses.
  • Only analyses graded 'TY' by JMA are considered.
  • Forecast entries are excluded from resolution.
  • Classifications from agencies other than JMA are not considered.
  • Post-season best track data is not used for resolution.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • JMA Ceases Analysis: If JMA stops publishing analyses before October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the highest intensity class published up to that time will determine resolution.
  • Analysis Correction/Removal: If JMA corrects an erroneous analysis, the corrected version is used. If an analysis is removed without replacement, the highest intensity class in the remaining analyses is used.
  • Temporary Display Glitches: Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will be disregarded.
Timing: Resolution will occur when JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan, or on October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if JMA continues publishing analyses beyond that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Choi-wan. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Choi-wan in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Choi-wan an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more. JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Choi-wan will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Choi-wan by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Choi-wan (JMA typhoon number 2627) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past positions for T2627 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202627.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but does not state Intensity in categories rather it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Choi-wan. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Choi-wan in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Choi-wan an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more. JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Choi-wan will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Choi-wan by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Choi-wan will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Choi-wan (JMA typhoon number 2627) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past positions for T2627 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202627.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but does not state Intensity in categories rather it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and expert opinion, this market aggregates the insights of a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and real-time updates. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. However, studies suggest that prediction markets can be surprisingly accurate, sometimes outperforming traditional forecasting methods, especially when there is significant uncertainty surrounding an event. It’s a fascinating comparison to observe how the crowd’s assessment aligns with, or diverges from, expert predictions.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict in the Choi-wan strength market can arise due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading activity, and perceived information advantages contribute to varying valuations. The 24-hour volume is currently $8,495, showing active trading on both platforms. Furthermore, each platform may attract different types of traders with varying risk appetites and forecasting models. These factors can lead to differing probabilities assigned to the same outcomes, resulting in price divergence even though both platforms address the same underlying question about the typhoon’s strength.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Updates from meteorological agencies, such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, regarding Choi-wan’s projected path and intensity are key catalysts. Changes in sea surface temperatures or atmospheric conditions could alter forecasts, leading to shifts in market prices. Unexpected developments, like rapid intensification or a change in the storm’s track, would likely cause substantial movement. The 24-hour volume of $8,495 indicates active trading, suggesting traders are closely monitoring these factors and adjusting their positions accordingly. Any new information regarding the potential impact on landmasses will also be closely watched.