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$147.2b

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512,063

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How strong will Champi be?
polymarket

How strong will Champi be?

Oct 15, 2026, 11:03 AM EST - Oct 29, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$33,527
Volume 24h:
$1,721
88%
Liquidity:
$4,468
47%
Open interest:
$5,449N/A

Violent

 - Polymarket

Violent - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Time left: 06d:10h:09m

Will Champi peak as a Violent typhoon?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 69% 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Violent

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 99¢No 3.4¢
2.4¢
$1,049
$12,440
0.53%
678%
N/A
6d 10h 9m
active
polymarket

Very strong

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
0.2¢
$1,801
$12,981
15%
1,141%
N/A
6d 10h 9m
active
polymarket

Strong

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.7¢
—
$846
$5,932
0%
18%
N/A
6d 10h 9m
active
polymarket

Severe tropical storm or weaker

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$774
$2,174
0%
430%
N/A
6d 10h 9m
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more. JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more. JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Champi strength market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of various outcomes changes over time, providing insight into where traders are placing their bets. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $1,637, and the total volume traded to date is $33,527. This allows you to gauge the level of interest and activity surrounding predictions about Champi's performance. The dashboard offers a dynamic view of market sentiment.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analysis, incorporating information from diverse sources and perspectives. While analysts may focus on specific metrics, the market aggregates opinions on all potentially relevant aspects of Champi's strength. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available data, offering a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment regarding Champi’s potential. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a determination of Champi's overall strength, as assessed by established and widely recognized metrics. This assessment will be based on publicly available data and will be evaluated against established standards. The specific details of the determination will be publicly available at the time of resolution, ensuring transparency and fairness for all participants in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Any news regarding Champi’s training regimen, performance in preliminary competitions, or changes in the competitive landscape could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected injuries or strategic shifts by competitors could also cause shifts in the odds. Furthermore, major announcements related to the overall event or changes in the judging criteria could influence the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.