TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.2b

24H VOL:

$139,262,101

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,770,072,055

512,063

Markets across

38,451

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,850

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
polymarket

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM EST - Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$68,763
Volume 24h:
$3,302
303%
Liquidity:
$3,595
61%
Open interest:
$8,739N/A

20 to 34

 - Polymarket

20 to 34 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Mar 31, 2027

Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.5¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 0.5% | APY: 1% Low liquidity 159 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20 to 34

Trade
95%
4%
Yes 99.5¢No 9.9¢
9.4¢
$864
$27,522
0.4%
45%
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

35 to 49

Trade
5%
5%
Yes 9¢No 95.5¢
—
$608
$17,200
0.06%
32%
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

50 or more

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,383
$14,255
0%
11%
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

Fewer than 20

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$740
$9,787
0%
14%
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time. If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.

Polymarket

This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time. If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the West Nile cases market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the number of neuroinvasive disease cases among New York City residents in 2026. You can see current probabilities, historical trends, and $3,352 24-hour volume, helping you gauge trader sentiment as the market evolves toward its Apr 1, 2027 resolution.

Currently, this market shows a strong inclination toward a specific range of cases, reflected in the leading outcome’s probability. That level of conviction may differ from public-health analyst forecasts, which sometimes emphasize precautionary messaging or broader statistical bands. Comparing the two can reveal whether traders are pricing in worst-case scenarios, seasonal patterns, or emerging data not yet reflected in official projections.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously bid and ask against the probability of each possible case range, driving the current implied odds. The top outcome’s 94.8% chance reflects the aggregate wisdom of participants, with liquidity and price shifts influenced by new public-health bulletins, weather models, or reported outbreaks in the region.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources such as city health department reports, CDC data releases, or peer-reviewed journals. The final count of neuroinvasive cases reported for 2026 among NYC residents will set the market’s settlement, regardless of trader predictions or platform activity.