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How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?
polymarket

How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

Volume:
$8,341

<8

 - Polymarket

<8 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 12:58 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<8

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,555
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

8-11

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,145
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12-15

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16-19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 19, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after October 25, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 19, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after October 25, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of a specific UKMTO notice count range. This contrasts with broader geopolitical analysis, which often focuses on qualitative assessments of maritime security risks. While traditional forecasts may highlight potential threats and regional instability, this market provides a quantitative view, reflecting the collective judgment of traders regarding the actual number of notices expected during the specified period. It’s important to note that this market’s outcome is determined by the verified count of UKMTO notices, offering a concrete resolution point.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final UKMTO notice count. The price of these contracts directly reflects the market’s implied probability for each possible outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current 24-hour volume is $1,223, indicating the level of activity and interest in this particular event. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and the actions of other traders on the platform.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of UKMTO notices published between October 19th and October 25th will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official UKMTO publications for the definitive data. The resolution will reflect the total number of notices issued during that seven-day window, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any significant incidents in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden involving maritime vessels could lead to an increase in UKMTO notices, potentially shifting the market’s probabilities. Geopolitical developments, such as increased tensions between regional actors or changes in security protocols, could also play a role. Unexpected announcements from the UKMTO regarding heightened alert levels or specific threats could also cause movement. Monitoring these events will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.