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How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
polymarket

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Aug 5, 2026, 2:48 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$158,964
Volume 24h:
$9,074
13%
Liquidity:
$22,241
8%
Open interest:
$21,329N/A

Greater than 8

 - Polymarket

Greater than 8 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

53%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 54¢ buys you 185 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $185 | Net Profit: $85 Multiplier: 1.85x | ROI: 85% | APY: 138% 258 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Greater than 8

Trade
53%
1%
Yes 54¢No 48¢
2¢
$4,368
$57,233
3%
30%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

8

Trade
36%
6%
Yes 37¢No 66¢
3¢
$3,588
$42,245
3%
12%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

7

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
$4,659
$44,643
16%
32%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

5

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,298
$6,513
0%
0.31%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

6

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,061
$4,876
0%
0.41%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

Fewer than 5

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,266
$3,453
0%
0.58%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the China tropical cyclone landfall market, along with 24-hour volume of $9,074. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different numbers of tropical cyclones making landfall in China during 2026, offering a live view of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, this market suggests a higher or lower probability than many analyst forecasts, depending on recent weather pattern discussions and historical comparisons. While analysts may issue detailed seasonal outlooks, prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations that can shift quickly with new data, often showing more volatility than traditional research reports.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through their bets, with the top outcome currently holding a 53.0% chance. The market’s price reflects the collective assessment of participants about the likelihood of the specified number of tropical cyclones making landfall in China during 2026, adjusted for recent trading activity.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the number of tropical cyclones that actually make landfall in China during 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will settle the market based on official meteorological data and widely accepted news sources.