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How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
polymarket

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?

Volume:
$409

10 or more states

 - Polymarket

10 or more states - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 10:15 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

10 or more states

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0 states

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1-2 states

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3-4 states

View
0%
67%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5-6 states

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7-9 states

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as drought predictions are complex and vary widely. However, broadly speaking, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and can provide a different perspective than traditional expert opinions. If analysts were generally predicting a high number of states to be in D4 Exceptional Drought, we might expect to see higher probabilities assigned to those outcomes in this market. Conversely, if analysts are more optimistic about rainfall and drought relief, the market may reflect lower probabilities for severe drought conditions. This market represents a forward-looking assessment based on collective intelligence.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of states in D4 Exceptional Drought. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that outcome will rise. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly, based on supply and demand for each outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the official US Drought Monitor map released by the National Drought Mitigation Center, which classifies drought conditions across the United States. The number of states designated as being in D4 (Exceptional Drought) on that map will determine the winning outcome for this market. The US Drought Monitor is a widely respected and authoritative source for drought information, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 10, 2026. Major weather events, such as prolonged heat waves or substantial rainfall, are key drivers. Updates to long-range weather forecasts from organizations like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will also be closely watched. Changes in water reservoir levels and snowpack in key regions could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, government policies related to water management and drought mitigation efforts could play a role. Any news suggesting a worsening or improvement in drought conditions across the US is likely to cause shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.