TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?

Volume:
$53,438

20-39

 - Polymarket

20-39 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 12:42 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20-39

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$27,890
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<20

0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,356
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz shipping market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $5,310. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit ranges during the specified week. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity, giving users a live view of where the market stands on this critical geopolitical and economic indicator.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of ships transiting the strait during the week of August 31 will be compared against the defined ranges to determine which market outcome is correct. No additional interpretation or judgment is involved — the numbers speak for themselves once official data are released.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 6, 2026. Any escalation or de-escalation in regional tensions — including military drills, sanctions enforcement, or diplomatic breakthroughs — would directly affect trader sentiment. Additionally, sudden changes in global oil demand, unexpected maintenance closures, or major shipping company rerouting decisions could also move prices. Real-time news feeds and regional policy announcements will be key catalysts for market movement in the coming weeks.