TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?

Volume:
$77,118

25-49

 - Polymarket

25-49 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 3:35 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25-49

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$14,974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<25

0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

75-99

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,852
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market, along with 24-hour volume of $22,374. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit totals for the week of August 3, offering a live snapshot of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, this market reflects strong trader confidence, contrasting with some analyst forecasts that suggest a more balanced or cautious outlook. While analysts may weigh geopolitical risks or seasonal patterns differently, the odds here capture the collective bettor perspective on ship transit volumes, often reacting faster to breaking news or sentiment shifts.

This market resolves around Aug 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of ships transiting the strait during the specified week will determine which side of the market is correct, based on publicly available maritime data sources.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 9, 2026. Changes in regional maritime security, including naval patrols or incident reports, may alter expectations for ship passages. Economic factors such as oil price fluctuations or altered cargo demand can also influence transit volumes. Additionally, unexpected weather events or infrastructure issues in the region might temporarily disrupt normal shipping flows, creating volatility in market odds as new information emerges.