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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?

Volume:
$47,984

190-209

 - Polymarket

190-209 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 11:29 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

190-209

View
100%
86%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,187
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

230+

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<170

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

170-189

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a specific range of ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This contrasts with broader analyst forecasts, which vary depending on factors like geopolitical risk assessments and global trade projections. While some analysts predict a significant decrease in traffic due to ongoing tensions, others anticipate a more moderate impact. The prediction market offers a real-time, aggregated view of informed speculation, potentially reflecting a different assessment than traditional expert opinions on this critical shipping lane.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current volume traded is an indicator of how much attention and conviction is behind each possible scenario for ship traffic.

This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified week will be the determining factor. Data will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking information and official reports to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the range of ship transits.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Escalations or de-escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly involving Yemen and surrounding areas, would be a primary driver. Any disruptions to shipping routes, such as attacks on vessels or increased piracy activity, could also cause substantial price movements. Major announcements regarding international naval deployments or trade sanctions related to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would also likely impact trading activity and shift the probabilities within this market.