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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?

Volume:
$17,492

190-209

 - Polymarket

190-209 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 11:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

190-209

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

170-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,561
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<170

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,008
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

230+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,661
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of ships transiting the strait during the week of September 28. You can view the implied probabilities associated with each range of ship transits, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,715. The overall volume traded on this market is $17,492. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is shifting regarding shipping activity through this critical waterway.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of between 190 and 209 ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified week. This contrasts with some initial analyst forecasts that predicted a wider range of possibilities, factoring in potential disruptions. However, it's important to note that prediction market odds represent a collective intelligence view, constantly updated by traders reacting to new information and evolving geopolitical factors. The market’s current view is a dynamic assessment of the situation, potentially differing from static analyst reports.

This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of September 28 will be the determining factor. Data will be sourced from established maritime tracking services and publicly available shipping data to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution. The outcome will be based on the total number of vessels that successfully passed through the strait within the defined timeframe.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any major geopolitical events in the region, such as increased Houthi rebel activity or disruptions to shipping lanes, would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in global oil prices or significant alterations to shipping routes due to weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Additionally, official statements from maritime authorities or major shipping companies regarding the safety and security of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could move the market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.