TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
kalshi
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?

Volume:
$16,943

200-219

 - Polymarket

200-219 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 6, 2026

Closed: Aug 6, 10:43 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

200-219

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 260

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$272
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 280

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$159
N/A
N/A
$158
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 270

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$137
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<200

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,809
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 300

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,023
N/A
N/A
$823
Settled
No
polymarket

220-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 290

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$142
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event group tracks the number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of July 27, 2026. The markets resolve based on IMF Portwatch data for the specified period, with different threshold ranges across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental geographic scope mismatch (Bab el-Mandeb vs Suez Canal) combined with non-overlapping threshold rangesHero tip: Do not treat these as correlated markets — they measure different waterways with incompatible threshold structures. Verify geographic scope before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses Bab el-Mandeb Strait transits with bin ranges: <200, 200-219, 220-239, >=240 ships from July 27-August 2, 2026 using IMF Portwatch 'Arrivals of Ships' data
  • Kalshi: Uses Suez Canal transits with ascending thresholds: Yes if >260, >270, >280, >290, >300 ships from July 27-August 2, 2026 using IMF Portwatch data
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Suez Canal, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds its specified threshold between July 27 and August 2, 2026. The threshold varies across markets, ranging from 260 to 300 calls. The total is calculated by summing daily transit counts across all days in the period. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring that complete and verified data is available before finalization. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of different levels of canal traffic intensity during the specified timeframe.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping market aggregates betting data across multiple venues, showing real-time odds and volume. It reflects collective trader sentiment on how many ships will transit the strait during the specified week. With a total volume of $16,943 and 24-hour volume at $1,361, the dashboard offers a live snapshot of market expectations and liquidity for this event.

Currently, prediction market odds imply a narrower range of likely outcomes than many traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may publish broad estimates based on seasonal patterns and geopolitical risk, this market prices in real-time trader assumptions, often reacting faster to new information. The gap between these two sources can highlight where crowd wisdom diverges from institutional views.