TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?

Volume:
$38,972

170-189

 - Polymarket

170-189 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 10:37 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

170-189

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
7.9¢
N/A
$4,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

230+

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-209

0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<170

0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,634
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping market, alongside 24-hour volume of $986. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit counts for the week of August 31, reflecting current market sentiment and betting patterns.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often capture real-time trader sentiment that can diverge from traditional research reports. While analysts may issue shipping throughput projections based on seasonal trends and geopolitical risk, this market reflects a crowdsourced probability that can shift quickly with emerging news or supply chain disruptions.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the week of August 31 will be compared against the market’s settled contract to determine the winning outcome.

Events such as regional maritime security alerts, sudden changes in shipping routes, or reported attacks or blockages in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could shift this market. Additionally, broader economic factors like fuel price spikes or altered trade flows may influence trader sentiment and cause rapid price movements as the resolution date approaches.