TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?

Volume:
$21,152

<180

 - Polymarket

<180 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 12:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<180

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$10,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

180-199

0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

200-219

0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

220+

0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for how many ships will transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of August 3. It also displays 24-hour volume of $5,308 and historical price trends, letting traders monitor sentiment and liquidity for this specific event.

This market resolves around Aug 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact number of ship transits observed during the specified week determines the result, closing the market once official counts are publicly available.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 9, 2026. Geopolitical developments in the region, such as naval confrontations or new sanctions, often cause rapid adjustments. Weather events like hurricanes or prolonged storms may restrict transits, while diplomatic resolutions or increased security patrols could ease passage. Economic factors, including oil price fluctuations or changes in global trade flows, also play a role. Traders will watch shipping company announcements, regional military exercises, and real-time Strait traffic updates for early signs of volatility.