TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?

Volume:
$31,141

200+

 - Polymarket

200+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 3:04 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

200+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,025
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<160

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,858
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping market, along with a 24-hour volume of $4,075. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit totals for the week of August 17, offering a live snapshot of market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, this market reflects a strong bias toward fewer than 160 transits, but analyst forecasts from shipping and logistics firms may vary. While prediction markets aggregate real-time trader sentiment, analyst reports often incorporate broader economic data, weather patterns, and geopolitical risk assessments. Comparing the two can reveal whether public markets are more optimistic or cautious than institutional experts.

This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of ships recorded transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified week determines whether the market settles on the higher or lower range, based on official maritime data sources.

Several developments could shift this market: sudden escalations in regional conflicts affecting Strait access, extreme weather disruptions to shipping lanes, or unexpected changes in global trade flows. Any public reports of altered vessel routes, security alerts, or official shipping data releases may cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess transit probabilities.