TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
polymarket

How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?

Volume:
$2,619

0-20

 - Polymarket

0-20 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 1:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0-20

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
8¢
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21-60

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

61-100

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

151+

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

101-150

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$333
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records. The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market. Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily. The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.

Polymarket

This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records. The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market. Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily. The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the US heat record market, showing how traders expect the number of all-time high temperature records at US weather stations in August 2026. It also displays 24-hour volume of $1,555 and total volume of $2,619, letting users monitor market activity and sentiment as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction market odds imply a very high probability of breaking 151 or more all-time high temperature records, contrasting sharply with many climate analyst forecasts that project fewer extremes. This divergence suggests market participants may be pricing in higher risk or more severe heat events than traditional models anticipate, potentially reflecting real-time data or emerging trends not yet captured in formal reports.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official climate and weather data verify how many all-time high temperature records were recorded at US weather stations during August 2026. The result will be based on credible public reporting from recognized meteorological institutions and government databases.

Signals such as government heatwave alerts, emerging climate models, and early summer temperature anomalies could shift this market. Major weather events, like prolonged heat domes or unexpected cooling patterns, will also influence trader expectations. Media coverage of record temperatures and updates from national climate agencies are additional catalysts that could cause rapid price changes as the August 2026 period approaches.