TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?

Volume:
$8,884

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 6:46 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,073
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$481
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 5

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$371
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of at least one 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquake occurring during the specified timeframe. This aligns with historical earthquake data, which shows that events of this magnitude occur with relative frequency globally. However, predicting earthquakes with pinpoint accuracy remains a significant challenge for seismologists, and forecasts are often expressed as probabilities over longer periods. Therefore, this market offers a more focused, short-term prediction compared to typical analyst forecasts, which may not be directly comparable due to differing time horizons and methodologies.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, and shifts based on supply and demand. As more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome increases. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, also plays a role in price discovery. The current price reflects the aggregate assessment of all participants regarding the likelihood of the specified number of significant earthquakes.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on data from established earthquake monitoring agencies, which will determine the actual number of 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes that occurred worldwide between September 7th and September 13th. The data will be assessed to verify the final count, and the outcome will be determined based on that verified number. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Sep 14, 2026. A significant earthquake occurring before the resolution date would likely cause a substantial shift in the odds, particularly if it’s a major event. Conversely, a period of seismic inactivity could lower the probability of the higher outcome ranges. News reports about increased seismic activity in known earthquake zones, or updates from geological survey organizations, could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, general risk sentiment in financial markets might indirectly influence trading activity in this market, though this effect is usually less pronounced.