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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

Volume:
$72,606

3

 - Polymarket

3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,954
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,986
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,066
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts for earthquake activity. While seismologists can assess earthquake probabilities based on historical data and geological factors, these are often expressed as ranges or long-term averages. This market, however, provides a real-time, aggregated prediction based on the collective judgment of traders. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies and the influence of current events or perceived risks reflected in the market price. The question is whether traders can outperform expert consensus.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe there will be a higher earthquake count, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a unit of exposure to this event.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or above that occurred worldwide between October 19th and October 25th will be used to determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from established seismological agencies and databases to ensure accuracy and transparency. The resolution will be based on the official records of earthquake events, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. A major earthquake occurring in a densely populated area would likely drive up the price of shares predicting a higher earthquake count. Conversely, a period of seismic inactivity could lower those prices. News reports about increased or decreased seismic activity in known fault zones could also impact trading behavior. Additionally, any updates from geological surveys or seismological organizations regarding earthquake probabilities could shift market sentiment. Monitoring these events and reports will be key to understanding potential market movements.