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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?

Volume:
$17,077

≤6

 - Polymarket

≤6 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 6:43 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

≤6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

7

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$732
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the global earthquake count market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes occurring worldwide between September 7th and September 13th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $10. The total volume traded in this market is $17,077. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how confidence in different scenarios is evolving.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to specific analyst forecasts for earthquake activity. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or expert opinions. This includes real-time data, diverse participant viewpoints, and the incentive for traders to be accurate in their assessments. If analysts predict a higher or lower probability of a certain earthquake count, we may see corresponding shifts in the odds reflected in this market over time, as traders react to that information.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final earthquake count. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a share that pays out if the final earthquake count matches a specific range.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final earthquake count will be determined by reviewing data from established seismological agencies that monitor global earthquake activity. These agencies provide publicly available records of earthquake magnitudes and locations, which will be used to verify the number of 5.5 or greater magnitude earthquakes that occurred during the specified timeframe. The market will settle based on this verified count.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. A major earthquake occurring within the specified timeframe would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds, particularly for outcomes related to higher earthquake counts. Increased or decreased seismic activity in known earthquake zones, as reported by geological surveys, could also impact trader sentiment. Additionally, any news or analysis regarding earthquake prediction models or the likelihood of seismic events could move this market as traders incorporate that information into their assessments.