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How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

Oct 1, 2026, 12:01 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 2:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$31,589
Volume 24h:
$569
82%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$21,661
0.18%

84.99 or below

 - Kalshi

84.99 or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 16d:12h:47m

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

21%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 23¢ buys you 435 shares | Odds: 21% Total Payout: $435 | Net Profit: $335 Multiplier: 4.35x | ROI: 335% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

84.99 or below

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 23¢No 84¢
7¢
N/A
$3,683
0.46%
262%
$2,752
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

82.99 or below

Trade
21%
Yes 11¢No 98¢
9¢
N/A
$1,727
0%
16%
$1,324
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

83.99 or below

Trade
18%
3%
Yes 23¢No 88¢
11¢
N/A
$4,636
5%
386%
$3,744
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

85.49 or below

Trade
17%
8%
Yes 33¢No 82¢
15¢
N/A
$4,126
2%
135%
$2,511
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

84.49 or below

Trade
17%
5%
Yes 23¢No 86¢
9¢
N/A
$2,302
0.48%
148%
$1,379
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

80.99 or below

Trade
17%
Yes 8¢No 100¢
8¢
N/A
$918
0%
104%
$275
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

82.49 or below

Trade
16%
Yes 12¢No 100¢
12¢
N/A
$966
0%
60%
$803
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

77.49 or below

Trade
16%
Yes 6¢No 100¢
6¢
N/A
$786
0%
4%
$752
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

78.99 or below

Trade
15%
Yes 6¢No 99¢
5¢
N/A
$1,281
0%
24%
$1,043
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

81.99 or below

Trade
14%
Yes 11¢No 99¢
10¢
N/A
$814
0%
275%
$493
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

80.49 or below

Trade
13%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$1,021
0%
5%
$544
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

78.49 or below

Trade
13%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
N/A
$616
0%
3%
$500
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

77.99 or below

Trade
12%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$707
0%
41%
$387
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

79.49 or below

Trade
10%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$2,166
0%
26%
$1,350
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

81.49 or below

Trade
10%
5%
Yes 11¢No 97¢
8¢
N/A
$1,175
2%
32%
$601
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

83.49 or below

Trade
9%
25%
Yes 12¢No 99¢
11¢
N/A
$2,013
13%
137%
$1,387
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

79.99 or below

Trade
8%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$983
0%
34%
$536
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

76.49 or below

Trade
8%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$205
0%
0.99%
$205
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

75.99 or below

Trade
7%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$756
0%
42%
$668
2w 2d 12h
active
kalshi

76.99 or below

Trade
6%
8%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$709
0%
73%
$409
2w 2d 12h
active
Total markets: 20

Description

The future price trajectory of WTI crude oil remains uncertain due to volatile global supply-demand dynamics, including geopolitical tensions and production policies by major oil-exporting countries.

Kalshi

Multiple markets track whether the minimum WTI front-month settle price falls below successively lower thresholds between issuance and October 30, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if ICE reports any price instance below its specific threshold during the period. The structure creates a ladder of decreasing price levels, each triggering resolution for its corresponding market when breached.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the WTI oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for various price levels by October 30, 2026. You can view the trading volume over the past 24 hours, which is currently $569, as well as the total overall volume traded to date, standing at $31,589. The dashboard also shows the price history of contracts, allowing you to see how expectations have shifted over time. This provides a real-time view of where traders believe the price of WTI crude oil will land.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market differs from many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts predict a continued rise in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market reflects a broader range of potential outcomes, including the possibility of price declines. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market represents a probability distribution of potential prices. The market aggregates the insights of numerous traders, potentially offering a more nuanced perspective than individual expert opinions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they’re willing to buy a contract for) and asks (the price they’re willing to sell). Contracts represent a payout if the WTI oil price falls at or below a specific level by Oct 31, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil front-month contract on that date will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the price level will receive a payout based on the contract’s value at resolution. The market’s outcome is based on publicly available data and is not subject to subjective interpretation.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 31, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policy, are key drivers. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, technological advancements in energy production, like increased efficiency in shale oil extraction or breakthroughs in renewable energy, could influence the long-term outlook for oil prices and therefore affect trading activity in this market.