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How long will downtown LA's 100°F streak last?
polymarket

How long will downtown LA's 100°F streak last?

Volume:
$15,269

Five

 - Polymarket

Five - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 12:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Five

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Four

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Six

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Seven or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,590
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market resolves according to the length, in consecutive calendar days, of the streak of days with a daily maximum temperature of 100°F or higher at Downtown Los Angeles that began on October 2, 2026. The streak ends on the first calendar day on which the daily maximum temperature is below 100°F, and this market resolves to the total number of consecutive days in the streak. The streak had already reached four days when this market was created, so it cannot total fewer than four. A daily maximum of exactly 100°F extends the streak. For example, if the daily maximum is 100°F on October 6 and 99°F on October 7, the streak totals five days and this market resolves to "Five". "Seven or more" resolves to "Yes" if the streak reaches seven days or longer. The resolution source for this market will be the daily maximum temperature (the "MAX" column) for Downtown Los Angeles in the National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Preliminary Local Climatological Data report, available at https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOX&issuedby=CQT&product=CF6. Values are published in whole degrees Fahrenheit and are used exactly as published, with no rounding or adjustment. Readings from any other Los Angeles station, including Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), do not count. The report is preliminary; this market will not resolve until two days after the streak-ending day's value is published, and any correction issued in that window governs.

Polymarket

This market resolves according to the length, in consecutive calendar days, of the streak of days with a daily maximum temperature of 100°F or higher at Downtown Los Angeles that began on October 2, 2026. The streak ends on the first calendar day on which the daily maximum temperature is below 100°F, and this market resolves to the total number of consecutive days in the streak. The streak had already reached four days when this market was created, so it cannot total fewer than four. A daily maximum of exactly 100°F extends the streak. For example, if the daily maximum is 100°F on October 6 and 99°F on October 7, the streak totals five days and this market resolves to "Five". "Seven or more" resolves to "Yes" if the streak reaches seven days or longer. The resolution source for this market will be the daily maximum temperature (the "MAX" column) for Downtown Los Angeles in the National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Preliminary Local Climatological Data report, available at https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOX&issuedby=CQT&product=CF6. Values are published in whole degrees Fahrenheit and are used exactly as published, with no rounding or adjustment. Readings from any other Los Angeles station, including Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), do not count. The report is preliminary; this market will not resolve until two days after the streak-ending day's value is published, and any correction issued in that window governs.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the LA heat streak market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the probability of different durations for the 100°F streak in downtown Los Angeles. You can see the current odds for each possible outcome, along with a price history chart illustrating how those odds have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,359, and the total volume traded to date, which is $15,269. This allows you to gauge market interest and activity surrounding this event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of shares available at different price points, also provides insight into the strength of conviction behind each prediction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the length of the 100°F streak in downtown Los Angeles is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official temperature data recorded at a designated weather station in downtown LA. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that accurately reflects the actual duration of the streak, as determined by this publicly available data. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. A shift in the prevailing weather patterns, such as the arrival of a marine layer or a change in the jet stream, could lower the probability of continued 100°F temperatures. Conversely, a strengthening of the high-pressure system could increase the likelihood of a longer streak. Any official weather forecasts predicting a break in the heat wave would likely cause a decrease in the price of longer-duration outcomes, and vice versa. Unexpectedly high or low temperatures recorded in downtown LA would also have an immediate impact on this market.