TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
polymarket

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

Volume:
$64,349

July 24

 - Polymarket

July 24 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 12:16 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

July 24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$17,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 31

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$12,560
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 25

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 31

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.6¢
N/A
$9,636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 15

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$4,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 23

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Houthi shipping attack market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and price history, showing how traders view the likelihood of successful attacks on shipping. It also displays 24-hour volume of $802 and overall volume of $63,796, letting users monitor market interest and sentiment as the event develops.

Currently, this market reflects a strong expectation of success, with odds aligning closely with many analyst forecasts that anticipate continued Houthi activity in key shipping zones. While some analysts slightly adjust their probabilities based on regional naval movements, the market generally mirrors expert views, showing consistent confidence in an attack occurring before the deadline.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A successful targeting of shipping, documented by mariner reports, satellite imagery, or official statements from naval forces, will determine the result. No ambiguous or private sources are used—only widely reported, publicly verifiable evidence counts.

Key signals include announced naval deployments, intercepted attack plans, or any claimed successes by Houthi forces. Escalations in regional tensions, international naval coalition actions, or even reported near-misses could shift trader sentiment quickly. Additionally, seasonal weather patterns affecting shipping lanes may also influence expectations and market movement leading up to Aug 31, 2026.