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Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?
polymarket

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?

Volume:
$3,852

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?

 - Polymarket

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 2:05 AM EST

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Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,852
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "No change" option's hourly odds value in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as the "Hike 25 bps" option being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the "Hike 25 bps" option or the "No change" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing before October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both the "Hike 25 bps" option and the "No change" option between market creation and October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Hike 25 bps" option is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the "Hike 25 bps" option and the "No change" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/fed-october-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "No change" option's hourly odds value in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as the "Hike 25 bps" option being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the "Hike 25 bps" option or the "No change" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing before October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both the "Hike 25 bps" option and the "No change" option between market creation and October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Hike 25 bps" option is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the "Hike 25 bps" option and the "No change" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/fed-october-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current odds that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 25 basis points at the October Fed meeting. It displays the implied probability of this outcome, reflecting the collective predictions of traders on the platform. You can also view the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $100, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3,852. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment surrounding the potential policy change.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the October Fed meeting. While a significant number of analysts predict a pause in rate hikes, this market suggests a notable probability of a 25 basis point increase. This divergence highlights how prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and real-time sentiment, potentially offering a more nuanced view of the likely outcome than static polls or expert opinions alone. It's important to consider both sources when forming your own assessment.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the October Fed meeting. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of a 25 basis point hike. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and shifts in market sentiment. Higher demand for contracts predicting a hike will drive up the price, while increased selling will lower it, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing system.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 25 basis point increase to the federal funds rate during its October meeting. The official announcement from the FOMC will serve as the definitive source for determining the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor the FOMC's statements and minutes for clarity.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Upcoming economic data releases, such as the September jobs report and inflation figures, will be closely watched for clues about the Fed's likely course of action. Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including speeches and interviews, could also influence market sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global financial conditions could also play a role, prompting traders to reassess the probability of a rate hike at the October Fed meeting. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.