TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 9:14 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest wind gust reported at Boston Logan International Airport (KBOS) between 12:00 AM ET September 24, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET September 28, 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying value is the highest of the gust (Gxx) in the wind group and the peak wind (PK WND) remark speed at KBOS within that window, in knots as reported. In a wind group written as 07017G30KT the gust is the value after the letter G, here 30 kt. In a remark written as PK WND 05026/1151 the peak wind speed is the value after the three digit wind direction, here 26 kt, and 1151 is the time of that peak in UTC. A gust (Gxx) counts if the METAR or SPECI observation reporting it falls within the window. A peak wind (PK WND) counts if the time stamped inside the remark falls within the window. These are not the same test: a peak wind remark reports the highest wind since the previous routine observation, so it can lag the observation carrying it by up to one hour. Peak wind times are stamped in UTC and will be converted to ET before being compared to the window. Observations published up to one hour after the window closes will also be read, so that a peak wind occurring in the final hour of the window is captured. A peak wind timed outside the window will not be considered for resolution. The observation as first published governs. A revision published after an observation is first published will not be considered for resolution, except where the correction provision below applies. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive differing from other sources. Otherwise, once a finalized observation has met or exceeded the listed value, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. If any observation remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after September 28, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized observations published up to that point. If no wind observation for the window has been published by the end of that period, this market will resolve to "No". Every market in this event may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive for station BOS, which publishes the routine and special observations for KBOS. The link below deliberately spans a wider range of dates than the market window, so that it returns observations before the window opens and for one hour after it closes. Observations dated outside September 24 to September 28, 2026 are shown for context only and do not count toward resolution. The archive is available here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?station=BOS&data=metar&year1=2026&month1=9&day1=21&year2=2026&month2=9&day2=30&tz=America%2FNew_York&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&report_type=3&report_type=4
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest wind gust reported at Boston Logan International Airport (KBOS) between 12:00 AM ET September 24, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET September 28, 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying value is the highest of the gust (Gxx) in the wind group and the peak wind (PK WND) remark speed at KBOS within that window, in knots as reported. In a wind group written as 07017G30KT the gust is the value after the letter G, here 30 kt. In a remark written as PK WND 05026/1151 the peak wind speed is the value after the three digit wind direction, here 26 kt, and 1151 is the time of that peak in UTC. A gust (Gxx) counts if the METAR or SPECI observation reporting it falls within the window. A peak wind (PK WND) counts if the time stamped inside the remark falls within the window. These are not the same test: a peak wind remark reports the highest wind since the previous routine observation, so it can lag the observation carrying it by up to one hour. Peak wind times are stamped in UTC and will be converted to ET before being compared to the window. Observations published up to one hour after the window closes will also be read, so that a peak wind occurring in the final hour of the window is captured. A peak wind timed outside the window will not be considered for resolution. The observation as first published governs. A revision published after an observation is first published will not be considered for resolution, except where the correction provision below applies. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive differing from other sources. Otherwise, once a finalized observation has met or exceeded the listed value, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. If any observation remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after September 28, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized observations published up to that point. If no wind observation for the window has been published by the end of that period, this market will resolve to "No". Every market in this event may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive for station BOS, which publishes the routine and special observations for KBOS. The link below deliberately spans a wider range of dates than the market window, so that it returns observations before the window opens and for one hour after it closes. Observations dated outside September 24 to September 28, 2026 are shown for context only and do not count toward resolution. The archive is available here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?station=BOS&data=metar&year1=2026&month1=9&day1=21&year2=2026&month2=9&day2=30&tz=America%2FNew_York&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&report_type=3&report_type=4
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While traditional weather analysts provide forecasts based on models and expertise, this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, the market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating factors that analysts might overlook or weigh differently. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or simply the wisdom of the crowd. It’s important to note that analysts and this market approach the question of the highest wind gust independently, leading to potentially divergent perspectives.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous, order-book style mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different wind gust ranges, and the price of each share reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that range occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, represented by the bid and ask sizes, indicates the ease with which traders can enter or exit positions. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market is constantly updating its forecast based on the latest available information.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest sustained wind gust recorded at Boston Logan Airport between September 24 and September 28 will determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from official weather stations and verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. The resolution process aims to provide a transparent and reliable determination of the market’s outcome, based on objectively measured meteorological data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Changes in the official weather forecasts, particularly the projected path and intensity of any approaching weather systems, will be key drivers. Updates from the National Hurricane Center, if a tropical storm or hurricane threatens the region, would also have a substantial impact. Even shifts in broader meteorological patterns, like the jet stream, could influence expectations. Unexpectedly high or low wind readings in the days leading up to the event could also cause traders to reassess their positions, leading to price fluctuations.