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Highest temperature in Wellington on July 5?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Wellington on July 5?

Volume:
$87,228

14°C

 - Polymarket

14°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

14°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,802
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,729
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Wellington temperature market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Wellington on July 5. Traders buy and sell shares based on their predictions of whether the day's peak temperature will hit specific thresholds. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, giving participants a live view of how the crowd is pricing different temperature outcomes. This dynamic pricing reflects collective expectations as new information and forecasts emerge.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and financial incentives. While meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical data, this market aggregates the beliefs of participants who have money at stake. Analysts may issue point forecasts or confidence ranges, whereas traders here express conviction through continuous price discovery. Comparing the implied probability from market odds to official weather service outlooks can reveal where the crowd sees value or risk that traditional forecasts may underweight or overlook.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature outcome has its own contract, and the current price of a share reflects the probability the crowd assigns to that result occurring. If traders believe the highest temperature will reach 10°C, they bid up that contract's price; if skepticism grows, the price falls. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as volume increases, making it cheaper to enter or exit positions during active trading periods.

This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once July 5 has passed and the day's highest temperature in Wellington is recorded. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources that document the actual peak temperature reached. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time, once the temperature data is finalized and verified.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before July 5 arrives. Updated weather forecasts from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as model confidence changes or new data emerges. Seasonal climate patterns, ocean temperatures, and atmospheric pressure systems influence long-range outlooks. Breaking news about unusual weather systems or climate anomalies can prompt rapid trader repositioning. As the event date approaches, intraday forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of expected outcomes and concentrating trading volume around the most likely temperature bands.