TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 14, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and broader uncertainty. While weather agencies rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants who may weight recent climate patterns, seasonal anomalies, or emerging data differently. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from Singapore's meteorological authority can reveal where traders see additional risk or confidence not fully captured by conventional models.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that balances buy and sell orders across outcome brackets. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature range carries its own contract, and the combined probabilities reflect the collective assessment of all active traders. As new weather data emerges or the event date approaches, prices adjust dynamically to reflect shifting expectations about where the high temperature will land.
This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once June 14 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Singapore is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual daily maximum temperature reported by Singapore's official meteorological station. Traders holding positions on the correct temperature bracket at resolution will receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Updated seasonal forecasts, tropical weather systems or monsoon patterns affecting the region, and real-time atmospheric pressure changes will influence trader expectations. As June 14 approaches, any official weather alerts or anomalous climate data could trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and recent heat trends in Singapore may prompt traders to adjust positions closer to the event.