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Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 30?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 30?

Volume:
$179,590

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,819
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,584
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the São Paulo temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in São Paulo on June 30. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. This live data reflects the collective predictions of market participants betting on whether the day's peak temperature will fall within specific ranges or hit particular thresholds.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, risk appetite, and information flow rather than relying solely on meteorological models. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability from market odds to consensus analyst predictions can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimism or caution than official forecasts suggest.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism where buying and selling pressure directly determines the odds for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature outcome carries its own contract, and the price of that contract reflects the probability traders assign to it occurring. As new information emerges or market sentiment shifts, prices adjust continuously, allowing participants to enter or exit positions throughout the trading window.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once June 30 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in São Paulo can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public weather reporting and official temperature records for that date. Traders holding positions in the correct outcome bracket receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, or updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies could significantly move prices in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, unusual atmospheric pressure systems, or unexpected heat waves affecting South America may prompt traders to reassess their positions. Additionally, historical temperature records for June 30 in São Paulo and real-time weather model updates released closer to the event date will likely trigger trading activity and price adjustments.