TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 11, 4:00 AM EST
Kalshi
On June 10, 2026, the maximum temperature will be recorded in San Francisco according to the National Weather Service's official daily climatological report. Participants are predicting what temperature range the city will experience on that specific date.
The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official recorded maximum temperature for San Francisco on June 10, 2026. The outcome depends on which temperature range bracket the actual high falls into. Once the day concludes and the National Weather Service or equivalent official source publishes the final high temperature, the corresponding contract resolves to 100 cents and all others to zero, settling all open positions.
Key drivers include updated extended-range weather forecasts, shifts in Pacific high-pressure systems, and anomalies in sea-surface temperatures affecting coastal California. Major weather pattern changes—such as an early heat dome, marine layer persistence, or upper-level troughs—can significantly alter trader expectations. Real-time atmospheric data releases, seasonal climate outlooks, and any unusual solar or oceanic oscillations will influence market pricing. As June 10 approaches, daily forecast updates become increasingly precise and can trigger sharp repricing of temperature outcome probabilities.