TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 2:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether San Antonio's maximum temperature will reach 90-91° Fahrenheit on May 29, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 44.0%, with a 92-93° high at 25.0%. Resolution will be determined by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report for that date. Watch the National Weather Service's official daily climatological report released on May 30, 2026, which will provide the definitive maximum temperature reading for May 29.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the highest temperature outcome for San Antonio on May 29 is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader bids and asks. Prices move continuously as new information arrives—updated forecasts, seasonal patterns, or historical May 29 temperature records all influence the market. Kalshi's order book shows the spread between buyers and sellers, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and liquidity. As the event date approaches, prices typically converge toward the realized outcome, and trading volume may spike as traders finalize positions.
The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after May 29 concludes and official temperature data is recorded. Resolution hinges on the highest temperature reading reported for San Antonio on that specific date. The exact data source and measurement methodology are defined in the contract terms at market creation. Once the official high is confirmed, the contract settles automatically, and traders' positions are finalized based on whether the actual temperature fell within their predicted range or outcome.
Several factors can shift odds before May 29 arrives. Updated seasonal forecasts and long-range weather models will influence trader expectations as the date approaches. Major atmospheric patterns—such as high-pressure systems, tropical moisture, or cold fronts—can dramatically alter the probability of extreme heat. Historical May 29 temperature records and recent San Antonio climate trends provide anchors for pricing. Additionally, any significant weather event or climate anomaly in the weeks leading up to May 29 may prompt traders to reassess their positions, causing price movements on Kalshi.