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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on June 27?

Volume:
$389,715

72° to 73°

 - Kalshi

72° to 73° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 3:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

72° to 73°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53,796
N/A
N/A
$26,427
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72-73°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

74° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$145,119
N/A
N/A
$77,719
Settled
No
kalshi

70° to 71°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,369
N/A
N/A
$29,683
Settled
No
kalshi

68° to 69°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,785
N/A
N/A
$32,919
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

66° to 67°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,952
N/A
N/A
$17,752
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,689
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,795
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

65°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

65° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,564
N/A
N/A
$3,240
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,560
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,383
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,002
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Los Angeles on June 27, 2026, measured at Los Angeles International Airport. Both platforms offer multiple temperature range buckets that collectively cover all possible outcomes, with traders betting on which specific range the day's high will fall into.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references June 26, 2026 while the event group title and Polymarket reference June 27, 2026. This is a fundamental date mismatch that makes the two platforms measure different events. Additionally, Kalshi provides no explicit data source URL or revision policy, while Polymarket specifies Wunderground with clear precision and cutoff rules.Hero tip: This divergence is critical and unresolvable without platform clarification. Do not assume these markets are fungible. Contact Kalshi to confirm whether the June 26 date is a typo. If intentional, these are two separate events and should not be arbitraged. Polymarket's explicit source (Wunderground) and revision policy make it the more auditable choice.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Measures highest temperature on June 26, 2026 at Los Angeles Airport. All six outcome buckets (less than 66, 66-67, 68-69, 70-71, 72-73, greater than 73) resolve to Yes, creating a logical tautology. Data source stated as National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) but no URL provided. No explicit revision or precision policy.
  • Polymarket: Measures highest temperature on June 27, 2026 at LAX. Offers 10 distinct temperature range buckets (65 or below, 66-67, 68-69, 70-71, 72-73, 74-75, 76-77, 78-79, 80-81, 82-83, 84 or higher). Data source is Wunderground with whole degree Fahrenheit precision. Revisions accepted until first datapoint of following date (June 28) is published.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, California on June 26, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is categorized into six bands: 65°F or below, 66–67°F, 68–69°F, 70–71°F, 72–73°F, and 74°F or above. Each band resolves to its corresponding outcome. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source; preliminary NWS data and alternative weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations and should not be used as final reference. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The Los Angeles temperature market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on the highest temperature expected in Los Angeles on June 27. Traders on both platforms are pricing their beliefs about whether the peak daily temperature will fall into specific ranges or exceed certain thresholds. This cross-platform view reveals how different market mechanisms and user bases converge or diverge on the same weather outcome. The dashboard consolidates activity and odds from both venues, giving you a comprehensive snapshot of where prediction markets stand on this atmospheric event.

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader conviction rather than traditional meteorological models. While weather forecasters rely on atmospheric data, historical patterns, and physics-based simulations, traders in this market incorporate those forecasts plus their own views on uncertainty and tail risks. Market odds often diverge from headline forecasts because they price in the full distribution of outcomes—not just the most likely scenario. Comparing the implied probabilities here to your preferred weather service can highlight where traders see upside or downside surprises relative to expert consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds for the same temperature outcome due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and information sets, and order-book dynamics can push prices apart temporarily. Additionally, the specific temperature ranges or thresholds offered on each venue differ slightly, meaning a trader bullish on heat might find better odds on one platform than the other. Monitoring both helps you spot arbitrage opportunities and understand where conviction is strongest.

Updated weather forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies are the primary driver of price movement in this market. Seasonal climate patterns, ocean temperatures, and atmospheric pressure systems can shift expectations days or weeks ahead. Real-time satellite imagery and model consensus updates often trigger sharp repricing as the event date nears. Additionally, any unusual weather events or heat waves in the region beforehand may influence trader sentiment about June 27 conditions. Monitoring forecast updates and regional weather news will help you anticipate market moves.