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Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 6?

Volume:
$69,558

19°C

 - Polymarket

19°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

19°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,970
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,089
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,278
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,727
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$972
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Cape Town temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Cape Town on July 6. Traders buy and sell shares based on their predictions of whether the peak temperature will reach specific thresholds. The dashboard displays current market prices, historical price movements, and cumulative trading volume, giving you a live snapshot of how the crowd is pricing this weather outcome. This transparent price discovery mechanism reflects the collective forecast of all active participants.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and financial incentives alongside expert models. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric data and historical patterns, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants who stand to gain or lose based on accuracy. Comparing the implied probability from current odds to official forecasts can reveal where the crowd is more bullish or cautious than experts. Both sources offer value: analysts provide technical depth, while markets reflect dynamic, incentive-driven consensus.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Cape Town for that day is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official meteorological data, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the data is confirmed, eliminating ambiguity and protecting all participants.

Weather forecasts updated by meteorological agencies can shift market odds significantly, especially as July 6 approaches and models become more precise. Seasonal climate patterns, ocean temperature anomalies, and atmospheric pressure systems all influence Cape Town's daily highs and may prompt traders to adjust positions. Breaking news about unusual weather systems or heat waves in the region could trigger sharp repricing. Real-time satellite imagery and short-range forecasts in the days leading up to the event typically drive the most volatile trading activity.