TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:41 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of Google’s stock closing within a specific range, as reflected by the odds on Polymarket. This contrasts with broader analyst forecasts, which present a wider distribution of potential closing prices. While analysts consider fundamental factors like earnings reports and economic indicators, this market reflects a collective, real-time assessment of all available information, including news, rumors, and technical analysis. It’s important to note that prediction market prices represent what traders are willing to pay, not necessarily a direct prediction of the final price.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe Google’s stock will close at a particular price, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will rise. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, providing a forward-looking view of potential stock performance.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final closing price of Google (GOOGL) stock on the last trading day of the week of October 5th will determine the outcome. The market will settle based on the official closing price reported by a major financial exchange, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor this timeframe for updates and the official announcement of the resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected earnings announcements from Google, major shifts in overall market sentiment, or significant news regarding the tech industry could all trigger price movements. Macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also impact investor confidence and affect the price of Google stock. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting Google’s business operations or competitive landscape could lead to substantial changes in the probabilities reflected in this market.