TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$85

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 2:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 2AM-2:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a price history chart displaying how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $85. The total volume for this market is $85, indicating the overall interest from traders. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These probabilities often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a 'wisdom of the crowd' approach, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. While some analysts may predict a rise or fall in gold prices, this market allows participants to express their own beliefs and potentially profit from accurate predictions. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how market-based forecasts evolve relative to expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. Higher demand for the 'up' contract, for example, will increase its price and the implied probability of gold increasing in value. This creates a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official price of gold between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher than its value at the start of that period, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will prevail. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on gold is crucial for traders in this market.