TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$116

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$25
$116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $116, and the total volume traded to date, which is $116. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the event. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of opinions and potential scenarios. It’s common to see discrepancies, as markets can incorporate information and react to news more quickly than traditional analysis. This difference can be valuable for identifying potential blind spots in conventional forecasting and gaining a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict, and it's constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on October 26th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The determination will be based on widely recognized financial data sources and reported prices.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, also tend to drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite could influence demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Any significant news related to these areas has the potential to cause substantial price swings and alter the odds in this market.