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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$535

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$25
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold to increase or decrease in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $535. The total volume traded on this market is $535. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to the anticipated price movement of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets are sensitive to real-time information and changing sentiment, potentially identifying factors not fully captured in standard analyst reports. This dynamic can provide a valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of a price increase, with higher prices suggesting greater confidence in an upward movement.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15 AM ET and 10:30 AM ET on October 26th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can influence market sentiment. Any significant news related to global economic conditions or risk appetite could cause substantial shifts in the odds of this market.