TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$203,036,808

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,857,846,526

408,774

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,373

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$10

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$127
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-25T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-25T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $10, and the total volume traded to date, which is $10. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of an upward or downward price movement, and how much capital is backing each outcome. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, or from factors not fully captured in standard models. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream financial commentary, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 6:45 PM ET and 7:00 PM ET on October 25th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be declared the winner; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, often drive demand for gold. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, or major shifts in currency exchange rates, could also cause substantial price movements. Any news that impacts risk appetite or global economic stability has the potential to move this market.