TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$57

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 11:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$57
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T03:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T03:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $57, and the total volume traded to date, which is $57. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price, allowing you to see where the crowd stands on this particular event.

Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may issue buy or sell recommendations based on fundamental or technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders putting their money where their mouths are. If a significant number of traders believe gold will rise, the odds will shift accordingly, potentially diverging from what some analysts are predicting. It's a fascinating comparison to see how market-based predictions stack up against expert opinions on the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to Oct 26, 2026, the more the price will reflect the prevailing sentiment and any new information impacting the gold market. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5-minute window from 11:30 PM to 11:45 PM ET on October 25th. If the price is higher than its starting point during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it’s lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from reliable financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Even significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could move the market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds.