TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,499

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 23, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,499, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,499. This information allows you to see how traders are collectively assessing the likelihood of each outcome and how interest in this market is evolving. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market represents the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders. These traders weigh a wide range of factors, potentially including information not yet reflected in standard analyses. Discrepancies between the two can emerge when unforeseen events or shifts in market sentiment occur, offering a unique insight into collective expectations beyond standard financial reporting.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of 2:45AM-3:00AM ET on October 23rd. A clear increase or decrease in price will determine the winning outcome. The exact price used for verification will be sourced from a widely-recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant changes in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries could all influence trading activity in this market.