TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$63

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 9:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$63
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T01:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T01:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $63. The total volume traded on this market is $63. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, the collective wisdom of the crowd on Predict suggests a particular expectation for the gold price movement. However, it's important to note that this differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on fundamental and technical analysis. While analysts may predict a rise or fall in gold prices based on economic indicators, this market reflects what traders are willing to bet on, incorporating a broader range of information and potential unforeseen events. Comparing these viewpoints can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with the remaining probability assigned to a price decrease. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15 PM and 9:30 PM ET on October 22nd. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'down.' The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact the gold price movement market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could influence investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or interest rates could trigger price fluctuations. Any significant news related to these areas has the potential to shift the odds in this market considerably.