TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$638

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$199
$638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $633, and the total volume traded to date, which is $638. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional opinions on gold’s price, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the same event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing the revisions in typical analyst reports. Comparing the two can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will reflect whether the price of gold increased or decreased between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on October 22nd, based on a widely recognized financial data source. The final price change will be assessed against established benchmarks to determine the winning outcome, and all trades will be settled accordingly. Traders will know the result shortly after the close of the trading window.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, frequently affects investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprise announcements or unforeseen circumstances in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.