TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,704

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$203
$1,704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with the total volume traded – currently $1,704 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $1,699. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential direction of the gold price. The dashboard also displays price history, providing context for current trading.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market’s predictions are based solely on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how crowd wisdom differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can offer a different perspective, potentially identifying overlooked factors or incorporating real-time information more effectively than static analyst reports. While analysts may predict a certain trend, this market reflects what traders are actually willing to bet on, providing a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will increase, the higher the price of the 'up' contract will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 9:00 AM than at 8:45 AM, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; if it’s lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in these areas could lead to substantial movements in this market.